Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/1936Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 15/1744Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 15/0212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4740 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 184 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 020/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 020/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 017/022-010/012-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2025/10/03 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/10/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
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