Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/1109Z from Region 3992 (S06W26). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb,
16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 13/0008Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 13/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 13/1120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2426 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 173 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 170/168/168 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 017/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 019/022-011/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2025/06/19 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/10/03 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/10/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 131.3 -1.2 |