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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
05/0239Z from Region 3947 (N11E29). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (06 Jan, 07 Jan)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 782 km/s at 05/0241Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 05/1652Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 05/1707Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 20 pfu at 05/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1067 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(06 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (07 Jan, 08 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Proton | 50% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 169 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 172/165/165 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 021/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 017/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 016/022-012/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/06/19 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/10/03 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/10/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2025 | 129.8 -3.7 |
| October 2025 | 140.1 +10.3 |
| Last 30 days | 131.3 -1.2 |