Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
24/0019Z from Region 3932 (S18E13). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 24/0747Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/0048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/0053Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 23/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 802 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Dec), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (26 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (27 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 259 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 260/260/255 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 018/025-018/025-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 70% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2025/10/03 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/10/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
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