Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 October 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Oct 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Oct 2024	167	017
18 Oct 2024	170	029
19 Oct 2024	175	018

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with several M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M2.4-flare, with peak time 05:05 UTC on October 17 2024, from SIDC Sunspot Group 283 NOAA AR 3854 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 283 and 285 (NOAA AR 3854 and resp. 3856) are the most complex AR (beta-gamma- delta).The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), first appeared in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 field of view at 16 OCT 23:12 UTC. An initial analysis suggests this CME is likely to have originated from the back side of the sun.

Solar wind

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s, with a temporary slight increase to 460 km/s at 13:00 UTC on OCT 16. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 7 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to become slightly enhanced on 17 OCT, due to the potential arrival of the high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on 14 OCT.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 3) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active levels on OCT 17, due to a high-speed stream arrival.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was shortly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold on OCT16 18:20 UTC, and has a small chance to exceed this level again shortly during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 137, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	168
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	121 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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