Viewing archive of Friday, 11 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
10/2230Z from Region 3842 (S13W0*). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13
Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 814 km/s at 11/1149Z. Total
IMF reached 45 nT at 10/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -45 nT at 10/2200Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 93 pfu at 10/2125Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 485 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Oct,
13 Oct, 14 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 214 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 215/215/212 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 050/155 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 070/128 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 020/030-011/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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