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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 01/0132Z from Region 3625 (N13W78). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 653 km/s at 01/0252Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 31/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (04 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Apr 125
  Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 124/126/130
  90 Day Mean        01 Apr 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Apr  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  008/008-009/012-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%35%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%30%20%

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