Viewing archive of Friday, 15 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0610Z from Region 3599 (S13W0*). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (16 Mar) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (17
Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 15/0336Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/2203Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 15/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 215 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev are
expected to cross threshold on day one (16 Mar) and have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day two (17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 75% | 20% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 129 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 008/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/11 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/12 | M1.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/11 | Kp9 (G5) |
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