Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 November 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 08/0848Z from Region 3483 (N09W09). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 780 km/s at 08/1943Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1232 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Nov 146
  Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  013/014-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

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