Viewing archive of Monday, 6 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
05/2134Z from Region 3480 (S09E40). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 06/1549Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 05/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 06/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (07 Nov), unsettled to
active levels on day two (08 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (09 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 146 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 030/075 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 030/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 022/032-014/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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