Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
29/1309Z from Region 3474 (S17E12). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Oct,
31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 29/0944Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 28/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 28/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1889 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 135 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 130/132/134 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 017/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 018/022-015/018-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 50% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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