Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/0814Z from Region 3390 (S19E46). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 30/0939Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/2331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0415Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 62 pfu at 29/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 591 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Jul) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug). Protons
greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 174 Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 008/010-023/030-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 60% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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