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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/0241Z from Region 3324 (N15W12). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 01/2118Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/2351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/0029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (03 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jun, 04 Jun, 05 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
Class M45%45%45%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jun 162
  Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun 165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        02 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  014/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  015/020-011/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

All times in UTC

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