Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
03/1045Z from Region 3293 (N13E35). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (04 May,
05 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 514 km/s at 03/1705Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/0515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
03/1238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6786 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 May), quiet levels on
day two (05 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (04 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 156 Predicted 04 May-06 May 154/152/152 90 Day Mean 03 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 008/008-006/005-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 30% |
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