Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
03/2353Z from Region 3270 (S23W18). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Apr,
06 Apr, 07 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 04/0159Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 04/0006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/0130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2419 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Apr, 06 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 136 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 009/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
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