Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
30/0737Z from Region 3256 (S22W88). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (31 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/2027Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 30/1217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/1421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1817 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (02 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Mar 140 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 015/018-014/016-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 45% | 40% |
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