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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 08/2244Z from Region 3245 (S23E07). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 09/1718Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/0614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3480 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M30%30%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 179
  Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 178/175/170
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 172

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  013/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  008/008-008/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm25%25%30%

All times in UTC

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