Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
04/1557Z from Region 3234 (N25W90). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 03/2202Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1697 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (05 Mar, 06
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Mar). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05
Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (06 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 182 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 016/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 016/022-016/020-015/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 40% |
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