Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
25/1944Z from Region 3229 (N25W46). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 24/2252Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 25/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
25/1746Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7 pfu at 25/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 966 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Feb), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (27 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (28 Feb). Protons are expected to be above threshold
as a 10 MeV proton event is in progress.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 152 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 013/020-026/036-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 40% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 25% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 79% | 65% |
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