Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 February 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 11/1548Z from Region 3217 (S09E36). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 10/2246Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/1550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 981 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M80%75%75%
Class X30%25%25%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 210
  Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 210/205/205
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  012/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%20%

All times in UTC

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