Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 07 2250 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/2007Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb,
10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 07/0822Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 07/0223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 07/0148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb,
09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Feb 185 Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 185/185/190 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 011/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
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