Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 January 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 14/2021Z from Region 3182 (S18W48). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 14/0725Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1746Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 228
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 225/225/220
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  010/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm35%20%20%

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