Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
31/2148Z from Region 3180 (N19E56). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan,
04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 01/0009Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/1918Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2887 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Jan), quiet levels on
day two (03 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (04 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 153 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 155/158/155 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 009/008-005/005-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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