Viewing archive of Monday, 26 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
26/1658Z from Region 3169 (N21W45). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 749 km/s at 26/0035Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 26/1204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 26/1148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2947 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Dec), unsettled
to active levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec NA Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 131/131/131 90 Day Mean 26 Dec 131 estimated
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 019/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 020/030-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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