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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 26/1658Z from Region 3169 (N21W45). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 749 km/s at 26/0035Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/1204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 26/1148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2947 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Dec), unsettled to active levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Dec  NA
  Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 131/131/131
  90 Day Mean        26 Dec  131 estimated

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Dec  019/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  020/030-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm50%30%20%

All times in UTC

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