Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 446 km/s at 05/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
06/1620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Dec), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (08 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 144 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 009/012-016/020-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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