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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
22/2118Z from Region 3151 (S19E05). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 22/2114Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
23/1639Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25
Nov, 26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 113 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 112/112/112 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 011/012-013/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 50% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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