Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
25/0706Z from Region 3110 (N16E46). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 24/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/0945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0951Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Sep,
27 Sep, 28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 135 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 140/142/145 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 008/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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