Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/0213Z from Region 3088 (S27W0*). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep,
02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 682 km/s at 30/1931Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 30/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 334 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 126 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
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