Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/1951Z from Region 3088 (S26W45). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class or X-class flare on days one, two, and
three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 512 km/s at 25/1425Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/0838Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0549Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2806 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (26 Aug, 28 Aug) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (27 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 118 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/13 | Kp6 (G2) |
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