Viewing archive of Friday, 19 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/0444Z from Region 3078 (S24W62). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 19/2055Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 19/1716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 19/1923Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2095 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 105 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 019/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 018/025-008/025-008/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 20% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/01 | M1.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| March 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 148.1 +49.1 |