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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 10/1054Z from Region 3030 (N20E60). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 10/1222Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0854Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/0958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jun 111
  Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 005/005/005
  90 Day Mean        10 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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