Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/2019Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 353 km/s at 12/2047Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
12/1314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
11/2114Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 12/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 May,
14 May, 15 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (13 May) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 133 Predicted 13 May-15 May 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 12 May 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 008/008-010/012-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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