Viewing archive of Monday, 4 April 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/1017Z from Region 2984 (N12W97). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 04/0413Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/2240Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 03/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3916 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Apr) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr). Protons
greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day
three (07 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Apr 128 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 008/008-014/020-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr to 07 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/16 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/13 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 153.1 +16.6 |
| Last 30 days | 176.7 +74.1 |