Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
31/1835Z from Region 2975 (N13W52). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 31/1148Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 31/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 31/0522Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 31/0630Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Apr). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (01
Apr) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 65% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 149 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 150/145/130 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 024/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 025/032-008/010-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 30% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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