Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 February 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 15/2300Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/1846Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9022 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M15%15%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 103
  Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/108
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  006/005-006/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%40%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm15%15%55%

All times in UTC

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