Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/2306Z from Region 2941 (N25E24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb,
10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 473 km/s at 08/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11396 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Feb), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (10 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 123 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 122/120/110 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 010/014-018/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 75% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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