Viewing archive of Friday, 14 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0203Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jan,
16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 14/1517Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 14/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at
14/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jan), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (16 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 110 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 110/110/108 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 014/018-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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