Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/0012Z from Region 2918 (N22W95). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 02/0030Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/0634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/0103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 280 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 089 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 088/088/085 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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