Viewing archive of Friday, 22 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 528 km/s at 21/2233Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/1136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 087 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 088/090/090 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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