Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 12/0703Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 12/0553Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 12/0158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 322 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 084 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 084/082/082 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 015/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 032/051 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 013/015-005/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 25% |
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