Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/2257Z from Region 2882 (N17W01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 10/2004Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 10/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
10/1911Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 155 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (11 Oct), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (13 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 085 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 016/025-017/020-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 60% | 20% |
Latest news
Tuesday, 14 May 2024
X8.7 solar flare
Monday, 13 May 2024
M6.6 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Sunday, 12 May 2024
Small CME impact, Record visitor amount
Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 114Trying to identify if this is STEVE? 4That was close..? 26AR3664 993Unproven theories 443
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/14 | X8.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/14 | M4.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/13 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 149.2 +12.7 |
| Last 30 days | 176.5 +77.5 |