Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 August 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 02/2115Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 02/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
02/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 250 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 076 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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