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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 18/0209Z from Region 2824 (N19E65). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 18/0316Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/0142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/0130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 May, 20 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 May).
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 076
  Predicted   19 May-21 May 075/074/073
  90 Day Mean        18 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  015/016-012/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%30%20%

All times in UTC

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