Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0935Z from Region 2822 (N18E05). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 May,
14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 12/2034Z. Total IMF
reached 23 nT at 12/0837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 12/1212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 771 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15
May).
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 075 Predicted 13 May-15 May 076/078/080 90 Day Mean 12 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 025/053 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 015/022-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 25% | 20% |
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