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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 22/0921Z from Region 2817 (N18W88). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 21/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15548 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Apr) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 084
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 084/084/082
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  009/010-008/008-019/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm15%10%40%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%05%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%40%70%

All times in UTC

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