Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 February 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 16/2029Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 16/1552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 16/1404Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 071
  Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%10%10%

All times in UTC

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