Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 December 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 294 km/s at 16/1150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
16/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
15/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 082 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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