Viewing archive of Monday, 5 October 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 05/1903Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1919Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
05/1915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 42682 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Oct) and quiet levels on
days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 072 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 010/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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