Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 343 km/s at 17/0150Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/0529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 070 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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