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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 24/2221Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/0806Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Aug 071
  Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%10%10%

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